Intelligent Essays: Assassination Attempts on Presidents

William Crotty, in Presidential Assassinations, makes the following statement: “First, and of greatest importance, only two of the nine attempts on the lives of presidents or presidential candidates can be considered the work of a conspiracy”.[1] Implied in his proclamation is the assertion that U.S. presidents and candidates are rarely the target of assassination conspiracies. The non-conspiracy trend identified by Crotty only applies to pre-1970 U.S. politicians; the lack of conspiracy is not a global assassination phenomenon pre-1970. Contrary to U.S. trends in assassination conspiracies, nearly every non-U.S. political assassination or attempt involved two or more individuals plotting the murder.

Crotty incorrectly makes his statement concerning the lack of conspiracies among the successful and unsuccessful assassination attempts on U.S. presidents and hopefuls. In fact, there was a third successful conspiracy to assassinate a presidential candidate; leader of the Mormon church, Joseph Smith Jr. was a presidential candidate when a mob murdered him in 1844.[2] Up until the time of publication, Crotty only considers Presidents Lincoln and Truman as proven victims of assassination conspiracies. Despite his inaccuracy, the idea implied by his statement remains true: most attempts on the lives of U.S. presidents and candidates pre-1970 are not the product of conspiracy.

Lincoln met his death by John W. Booth and a loosely organized band of conspirators who ultimately failed in their efforts to assist the Confederacy, which had surrendered four days earlier. The second conspiracy to murder a president involved two Puerto Rican fanatics who attempted to assassinate Truman and draw attention to Puerto Rico’s economic and political struggles. Although many people believe President Kennedy was the subject of a conspiracy, concrete evidence of such a plot to murder him has yet to be revealed. Crotty further asserts that nearly all the assassins who have attempted to murder U.S. presidents or candidates have been mentally unstable and, with the exception of the assassination of Lincoln and the attempt on Truman, all assassins have acted alone.

William Crotty’s statement, when applied to non-U.S. rulers or aspiring rulers, does not hold true. A review of Linda Laucella’s book, Assassination: the politics of murder, quickly reveals that practically every major non-U.S. assassination or attempt since the time of the Caesars has been the product of conspiracy. Spanning the globe, Mexican rulers Pancho Villa, Carranza and Madero died at the hands of conspirators. South Vietnam’s president, Ngo Dinh Diem; India’s Gandhi; Russia’s Trotsky and Rasputin; Italy’s Mussolini and Germany’s Hitler were targeted for assassination. The list of assassination conspiracies goes on; stretching from post-WWII France to ancient Rome, just about every non-U.S. political figure murdered was the victim of conspiracy.

The noted exceptions to the rule of assassination conspiracy are Mexico’s Alvaro Obregon and French Revolutionary, Jean Paul Marat. A lone gunman, Jose Toral, a zealous Catholic who opposed Obregon’s anticlerical dictates, assassinated the former. While an incensed Girondin patriot, Charlotte Corday, who stated she was willing to “sacrifice of my own life in order to save my country,” murdered Marat.[3] These rare exceptions, highlighted by Laucella, encompass centuries of rulers across the globe and bring attention the uniqueness of the apparent lack of conspiracies to assassinate political figures in the United States.

In sum, Crotty’s observation concerning the lack of conspiracies to murder U.S. presidents and candidates is a valid observation. The trend, however, does not carry over to the rest of the world. The rule, in general, is that non-U.S. political assassinations are products of several individuals scheming and plotting murder, while U.S. political assassinations are the invention of mentally deranged individuals.

Crotty made his statement concerning the assassination attempts on U.S. presidents and presidential hopefuls in 1970. In the 37 years since he made that statement, there have been at least eight serious attempts on the lives of U.S. presidents, a sharp rise in the assassination rate on U.S. presidents. Despite the changing course of politics and world opinion on assassinations, Crotty’s statement holds true only if the rate of non-conspiracy attempts to those of conspiracy attempts is considered. If the intent of his statement is to show the unlikelihood of a U.S. president falling victim to an assassination conspiracy, his statement needs revision. Due to the vague implications of Crotty’s statement, he would need to revise his observation based on post-1970 events involving U.S. presidents and presidential candidates in order to clarify his intended meaning.

Should Crotty’s statement be taken at face value, based solely the conspiracy rate, or does his statement imply that the likelihood of an assassination conspiracy on any given president is very low? For the purposes of this essay, the later is presumed. Because the rate of assassinations has increased in the post-1970 period, Crotty would need to revise this observation, if only to clarify his intended meaning. Crotty’s original statement accounted for only nine attempts on presidents and candidates over a period of 194 years. Nearly the same number of assassination attempts has been achieved in only 37 years following the publication of his article in 1970. While the rate of assassination is not directly addressed by Crotty’s observation, it is notable nonetheless and demonstrates that the volume of conspiracies has increased in the given period. Additionally, the number of recent attempts provides enough of a sample to determine if his observation remains valid post-1970, when the ratio of non-conspiracy attempts to those of conspiracy attempts alone is considered.

Presidents marked for death after 1970 include Nixon, Ford, Carter, Regan, George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and the current president, George W. Bush- every president. Of these presidents, President Nixon was in little if any danger of death, as the would-be assassin was stopped more than 30 miles from the White House. President Ford survived two unrelated gun attacks, twice in the same month, by two different women. President Regan recovered from a gunshot wound to the chest after an attempt on his life. President Clinton was the target of an assassination attempt, however the gunman mistakenly shot at the wrong group of people standing on the White House lawn. The current president, George W. Bush also survived an attack in the country of Georgia when a lone man miss-threw a grenade. The preceding attacks were those of individuals, most of whom were mentally imbalanced.

Presidents Carter and George H.W. Bush, however, were targets of assassination conspiracies. Raymond Lee Harvey was arrested in the presence of President Carter while carrying a pistol. Harvey later told police that he was part of a conspiracy to assassinate the president.[4] President Bush likewise was the target of an assassination conspiracy. This time, the conspiracy involved another head of state, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. Sixteen men, employed by Saddam, smuggled a car bomb into Kuwait with the intent of assassinating President Bush.[5] Like Lincoln and Truman, they are the exception to the norm: most U.S. presidents are not targets of conspiracy.

In the years following Crotty’s observation, little has changed in the rate of non-conspiracy attempts to those of conspiracy attempts. During the period of the first 35 presidents, eight assassination attempts were made which include only two assassination conspiracies. Likewise, eight attempts were made on the remaining six post-1970 presidents; two presidents became subjects of assassination conspiracies. Despite the apparent similarity in the ratio of attempts and conspiracies, the overall rate of assassinations has increased- increasing the percentage of conspiracy attempts on presidents. The ratio of post-1970 U.S. presidents who became the targets of assassination conspiracies increased from 5% to 33%; meanwhile, the overall percentage of presidents subject to an assassination attempt increased from 22% to that of 100%. These percentages show that each post-1970 president has not only had a higher proportion of assassination attempts on his life, but he has a higher likelihood of becoming the victim of a murder conspiracy when compared to pre-1970 presidents.

Due to the vast increase in the percentage of assassination in general and specifically assassination conspiracies among U.S. presidents in the given period, Crotty would need to revise his statement. Some may contend that because the rate of non-conspiracy attempts to those of conspiracy attempts remains nearly the same, his statement remains valid and needs no revision. However, considering the proportion of post-1970 presidents victimized by assassination conspiracies, his statement, which implies that the likelihood of an assassination conspiracy on any given president is very low, becomes invalid. Clarification is needed to show Crotty’s intended meaning and to address the sharp increase in the rate of assassination since his articles publication.