Jessica Stern’s The Ultimate Terrorists deftly defines modern terrorism, answers questions pertaining to the sources and effects of various weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and offers solutions to prevent and mitigate future terrorist attacks. This book provides insight and perspective on the war on terror in the post Cold-War era. Stern affords the reader a brief history of terrorism and explains why terrorism today is different from the past. She describes how the collapse of the former Soviet Union has created a breeding ground as well as a weapons treasure trove for today’s terrorists. Graphically explaining the effects of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, she compels the reader to understand that the main objective of most terrorists is to terrorize, although the intentions of others are to commit mass murder. Allowing that the terrorist threat is real, she presents several ways to thwart the efforts of would-be terrorists.
Stern defines terrorism as an act or threat of violence against noncombatants with the objective of exacting revenge, intimidating, or otherwise influencing an audience. This general and broad description allows for a wide assortment of possible actors, goals and ideals, from religious and goal oriented extremists to those who murder just for sake of killing. Aside from the physical horrors of WMD, she depicts the mental trauma of civilians and states as so great, the public would support an expansion of the military and government powers to perform electronic monitoring of phone calls and deportation of foreigners.
To explain the reaction, the author contrasts prospect theory and decision theory, asserting that the public generally puts weight on certain issues that are statistically unlikely versus making rational decisions based on logic. For example, most people are more worried about the risks of nuclear power plants than the risks of driving to work, and more alarmed by the prospect of terrorists with chemical weapons than by swimming in a pool. Stern explains that experts tend to focus on probabilities and outcomes, but public perception of risk seems to depend on other variables: there is little correlation between objective risk and public dread. Examining possible reasons for this discrepancy helps the reader understand why the thought of terrorists with access to nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons fills us with dread.
Historically terrorists have political goals and use terrorism as a tool to accomplish their objectives. Terrorists today are motivated by extremist reasons and some view terrorism not as a calculated tool but as an end in itself. Today’s brand of terror employs the use of sophisticated technology, including the Internet, television and high-tech weaponry. Chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear weapons, and their components were developed and stockpiled in the former Soviet countries. Economic disparity and corruption have resulted in these and conventional weapons entering the black-market. In addition to the black-market, Stern identifies terrorist states that exploit the financial troubles that plague ex-nuclear scientists, hiring them to develop WMD for purposes of their state.
Dr. Jessica Stern informs the readers that dread is a crucial aspect of terrorism and practically all terrorists use dread as a device to achieve their objective. Inspiring dread requires instilling fear in others, generally by killing or threatening to kill large numbers of people. As WMD become more available, some terrorists will be attracted to these weapons simply for the dread and fear they evoke, though many may resist using them because they encounter moral, political, technical and organizational obstacles in carrying out such large-scale attacks. These obstacles, Stern argues, make a WMD attack unlikely.
After discussing the most likely forms of attack (chemical and biological), Stern identifies three principles that policy makers should keep in mind to prevent or mitigate the damages in a terrorist attack involving WMD. First, they must prioritize the threats. Second, legislators must determine if defense spending is proportional to the threats and finally, they must develop strategies to minimize the loss of life in the event of a biological or chemical attack.
Dr. Jessica Stern reaches her objectives in The Ultimate Terrorists by providing a solid background in and explaining the details of the tools of terror, focusing on the technical aspects of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. Her book provides the insight needed to effectively answer the question our government is presented with: How do we effectively deal with terrorists? By analyzing the actions of the Japanese Aum Shinrikiyo terrorist group, Timothy McVeigh, Argentine guerrillas and others, Stern introduces both the technical and mental factors that affect the terrorists and the victims. Using case study analysis, she acknowledges the fears and horrors associated with terrorists’ use of WMD; she then systematically puts those fears into perspective. Her clinical approach, discussing relevant theories and statistics, removes emotive reasoning and brings a sense of composed rationality in addressing the question of how to deal with the threat.
Stern methodically begins by defining terrorism and describing its continued use over thousands of years. By defining terrorism as an act or threat of violence against noncombatants with the objective of exacting revenge, intimidating, or otherwise influencing an audience, she allows for a range of possible actors and goals. Stern compares modern terrorists to historical terrorist groups: the Zealots-Sicarii, the Assassins, and the Thugs. Motivated by their religious convictions and active internationally, these groups, like some of those of today, work to threaten and kill civilians in attempt to influence governments. Her discussion regarding the history of terrorist clarifies that terrorism is not a “new” occurrence and her comparisons help the reader to understand the evolution of terror.
When describing the horrid effects of WMD such as chemical and biological weapons, Stern explains how the dread of these weapons works to further the cause of the terrorists. While a major advocate of combating terrorism, she statistically shows attacks of great magnitude are highly unlikely to occur and it is the population’s fear of what could happen that often drives government policy. According to Stern, psychologists have shown that we overestimate the likelihood of rare events, such as shark attacks, and underestimate the likelihood of more common ones, such as heart attacks. This helps explain why people are enthusiastic about high-prized lotteries, although the prospect of winning is low. These observations are relevant to our understanding of terrorism. While terrorism is still relatively rare, especially in the U.S., it looms large in the public consciousness.
Drawing on her personal experiences in Russia and former Bloc countries, she aptly describes the border situation and corruption within those governments. Here, Stern offers her first suggestion to curtail the opportunities of would-be terrorists. According to Dr. Stern, the border guards, subjected to substandard salaries, accept bribes and allow smugglers to cross unimpeded. Similar financial problems affect the former Soviet designers of atomic weapons. Once the governments’ highly paid elite, they now live in inferior housing and cannot afford to feed their families. Stern suggests steps to strengthen the borders and find gainful, peaceful employment for these brilliant scientists. She also recommends creating emergency funds, accelerating efforts to secure Russia’s warheads and nuclear facilities, improving international sharing of intelligence, increasing domestic preparedness and updating domestic and international laws.
After reading The Ultimate Terrorists, readers will have a better understanding of the realities of the WMD threat and what tools are available to the government and first responders to minimize the impact of such an attack. Unfortunately, Stern focuses mainly on the symptoms of terrorism rather than discussing the root causes. However, the approach is logical and convincing, urging readers to consider a rational response by examining statistical data and evidence before rushing to change policy and military strategy to fight the war on terror. Her predictions and insight offer a non-partisan view and propose simple yet essential advice to maximize the nation’s defense in its role to guard the homeland. She concludes by proclaiming that terrorism may never be eliminated; however, action to effectively deal with it is required. The Ultimate Terrorists is an important read for those concerned with terrorism, national defense and weapons of mass destruction.
Author Information
Dr. Jessica Stern is currently a lecturer in Public Policy at the J.F. Kennedy School at Harvard and a faculty affiliate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. She was the Director for Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council from 1994 to 1995. As Director, she was responsible for policies to reduce the threat of nuclear smuggling and terrorism and security policy toward Russia and the former Soviet states. While authoring The Ultimate Terrorist, Stern was a terrorism fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. A renowned terrorism expert, she also wrote Terror in the Name of God (HarperCollins, 2003) and several articles on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Jessica Stern earned her bachelor's degree from Barnard College in chemistry, a master's of science degree from MIT, and a doctorate from Harvard in public policy. (http://ksgfaculty.harvard.edu/Jessica_Stern)
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